Russia hi rak ruah ning tluk in an rak tthawng lo ti hi ho poah nih

Russia – Ukraine War Part IV: 5 Scenarios
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Russia le Ukraine War hi zeitin a dongh te hnga tiah hlathlai tu pawl nih asi kho ding phun 5 an langh ter. Asi kho bik ah na ruah mi zong rak chim ve te.

1. Russia nih a thazaang dihlak chuah in Ukraine hi a phomh lai i Kiev hi a lak te lai. Khua tam tuk a hrawk lai, mi tampi an thi rih lai. Cu hnu ah Kiev ah a lang in control mi “marionette government” a ser lai i cutin caan saupi Ukraine hi a uk te lai (Tor Bukkvoll, senior researcher in FFI).

Atomic bomb hi teh a hmang taktak sual hnga maw ti mi kong ah Tor Bukkvoll nih; hi cu an i thlahphoih sual ti lo ahcun a hman taktak ding zumh a um lo a ti. Ukraine ah a um mi nuclear power plant Russia ralkap nih an va tuk mi khi cu Ukraine ram power supply kha control a duh ruang deuh asi ko a ti. A dang pakhat nih chim ve mi cu; minung million 40 reng lo asi mi Ukraine hi Russia he an ruahnak ai dan tuk fawn caah Russia nih la kho hmanh sehlaw caan sau a control kho lai lo a ti (Karsten Friis, researcher in NUPI).

2. Pakhat poah nih “give up” an tuah te lai. Tchnk ah Ukraine nih ei-awk tirawl an chambau ruang ah maw, siloah hriannam an chambau ruang ah maw doh kho ti lo in an lung a dong kho. Siloah Russia pawl nih an ruah leng tiang minung nunnak tamtuk a liam tik ah tuar kho ti loin hnu lei an kir kho ve. Asinain Putin nih sunghnak a cohlan ding le Ukraine a chuah tak ding cu zumh a har ngai fawn. Cucaah Ukraine pawl nih Russia kha an ram in dawi khawh ve lo, Russia pawl zong nih Ukraine khuapi pawl lak khawh ve hlei lo dirhmun phak khawh asi (Tor Bukkvoll).

Russia hi rak ruah ning tluk in an rak tthawng lo ti hi ho poah nih van hmuh cio asi i hi nih hin Russia cotrol nak tang ah a um mi hlanlio Soviet Union in a chuak mi ram pawl kha zalawnnak tamdeuh a pek hna lai (Karsten Fliis). Researcher pakhat nih cun hi ral hi Russia nih thah le tleih an duh mi president Volodymyr le a minung pawl an tleih khawh hna ahcun a dih kho a ti. A cheu nih president Volodymyr an tleih le an thah hmanh ah Ukraine mipi nih “give up” an tuah lai lo an ti ve. Cucaah pakhat khat nih “give up” tuah nak in hi ral hi a dong te kho ti kha second scenario cu asi.

3. Pathumnak scenario cu kaphnih biaruahnak in a dih te kho ti asi. Belarus ah voi 2 an i tong cang. Nain hlathlai tu pawl chim ning ahcun kaphnih in man an i hauh mi a fak veve i kaphnih hnatlaknak ngeih ding hi har ngai dawh asi ko. Ukraine hi Russia nih a ruah leng in Russia a doh khawh caah Russia sin ah fak deuh in demand a tuah khawh ve. An chim mi cu kaphnih biaruahnak ah Putin namnehnak tuah lo in solution kawl a hau ti si, nain Putin mualpho ter lo ahcun Volodyrmyr kha mualpho ter a hau. Phundang cun an pahnih in an hal mi co veve ding cun baichahnak tuah khawh dawh an si lo.

4. Moscow ah Putin he lamneih minung pawl nih uknak an lak khawh ahcun (Putin tthutden an chuh khawh ahcun) hi ral hi a dih kho. Nithum zaan ah Russia police nih Russia cozah inn-sen (the Red Square) le Putin ttutnak inn (Putin’s headquarters) cu hri an zamh kanh. A thaizing ah duhlonak langhter tu minung 725 an tleih hna. Nihin tiang ah Russia-Ukraine war duhlonak a langhter tu minung 7600 renglo an tleiih cang hna ti asi. March 3 ah Russian scientists pawl minung 7000 nih Putin sin ah “open letter” an ttial i Russia nih Ukraine a tuk mi kong ah fak piin an duhlonak an langhter.

Hi hna scientists le academics pawl hi an cung ah zeidah a tlung kho ti mi an thei ko nain ralttha tein Putin sin ah duhlonak an langhter. Atu tiang ahcun Putin kuttang minung pawl cawlcangh ding cu an lang kho rih lo. Nain western sactions nih Russia mirum pawl (Putin neihniam minung deuh lawngte) kha fak tuk in sanctions an tuah thluahmah hna. Ramdang ah an ngeih mi inn-lo, chawva an chuh thluahmah hna tik ah Putin minung chung lila in uknak le tthutden a chut tu an chuak te kho ti asi.

5. China nih Joker hmunhma a lak lai; Putin le Xi Jinping cu ttang tti an si. Naite Winter Olympic Games lio ah Putin le Xi Jinping cu kaphnih economic cooperation caah min thutnak an tuah i, cu lio ah an pahnih karlak i hawikomnak cu “no limits” asi tiah an thanh. Russia nih western nih fak piin sanctions an kan tuah tik ah khoika dah chirhkanh kan lak lai tiah caan saupi timhlamhnak an ngei cia ti asi i an i bochan bik mi cu China asi. Cucaah Russia cung ah influence a tuah kho bik cu China asi.

China hi Russia nih ramdang he trading an tuahnak ah partner ngan bik an si i 2021 ah Russia nih ramdang chawlehthalnak an tuah mi vialte (foreign trade) chung i 18% khi China ah asi (VG). Atu tiang ahcun China hi cuhlan bantukin ram pakhat i sovereignty sinak cu upat ding asi ti vial deuh khi a si. Russia mawhchiatnak fak piin a chim lo. UN resolution an tuah lio zong ah vote tla duh lo dirhmun ah a um. Cucaah Russia-Ukraine war nih China hi Russia sin a nawlngeihnak a karh ter chin lai pin ah Europe cung ah a thil tikhawhnak (influence) zong a karh ter chin lai tiah an ruah. Joker phun in a van i peih lai i ral deihnak ah biapi ngai in a cawlcang kho mi asi ti asi. Credit: Sangukceu Zinhlawng