Dr. Sui Hingz: Hmailei Kawlram sipuazi zeidah a lawh te lai?

Hmailei Kawlram sipuazi zeidah a lawh te lai?
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Kawlram cozah nih a ngeihmi leicung leitang thil (natural resources) pawl in tangka a hmuhnak tlawmpal zoh hmasa usih. ASEAN ram chung ah hin Kawlram hi Energy sector ah ramdang kampani tampi nih tangka hrambunh an duh bik nak ram pakhat a si.

Cu chung ah zinan oil & gas hlawhrian (sector) lei nih ramdang kampani (FDI) 154 sin in tangka hrambunhnak (investment) US$ nuai 22400 (22.4 billion) a auh khawh hna. Ram pumpi FDI i 30% hrawng a si. Cu chung ah kampani ngan 18 nih rili thuk ah zinan le gas laknak hmun 53 an khuar. Tlang ah hmun 51 kha kampani 12 nih an tuan. Offshore rilithuk i hmun 18 hi cu zinan le gas tha te in a chuak kho. Cozah nih ngunkhuai zeizah dah a hmuh?

Rakhine State i Zinan le gas laknak in kum fatin cozah sin ah ngunkhuai pekmi hi major deuh pawl kan zoh ahcun 2017-2018 ah France kampani Total E & P nih Yadana project in kum khat ah US$254 million hrawng le Yetagun project a lami Petronas (Malay kampani) nih US$208 million, Shwe gas project a lami Posco (S. Korea) nih US$193 million, Zawtika project a lami Thai kampani PTTEP nih kum khat US$41 million hrawng hi cozah nih phaisa a hmuh (IRD). Rakhine State i rililonh Zinan cawknak le gas laknak pawl ah Australia Woodside Petroleum kampani zong nai ah a rian a ngol (Reuters).

China- Myanmar gas pipeline hi kilo 793 a sau i 2 billion dollar dih in an sak i kum khat ah gas 12 billion cubic meter full load (full capacity) in a kuat khawh. Cun, Sittwe in China ah oil pipeline hi 2.5 billion dollar dih in an sak i kilo 771 a sau i kum khat ah 22 million tons zinanhring (crude oil) hrawng a kuat khawh. Kyauk Phyu deep seaport a dih ahcun 60 million tons hrawng a si te lai. Atu Iran in zinan a cawk ah Malacca rili lei in cun kilo 9,900 a hla i Kawlram in ahcun Iran le China kuatnak hi kilo 4600 lawng a hla cang lai. Hi gas le oil in China sin in a hmuhmi phaisa hi mangtara, kum khat ah a tlawm bik US$ 1.8 billion (nuai 1800) hrawng a si. Thailand he gas contract hi kum 30 caah a si i 2028 ah a dih ding a si. 2017 hnu cun Thailand ah kum khat 10 billion cubic meter a kuat.

Cun Letpadaung i Wanbao Mining Copper Ltd. le upaing UMEHL nih cawhmi copper mine in 2018 ah cathode copper ton 100,000 a chuah i 2019 ah ton 120,000 a chuah. Cu chung ah commercial tax 8% le profit tax 15% hi cozah ngunkhuai ah a kal. Dollar nuai 1000 hram an bunh i a kum khatnak ah nuai 825 man an kuat khawh.

Cun tulio market kong zoh ta usih law, 2020 thawk in Covid le 2021 ah ralkap nih uknak a lak tik ah sipuazi lei ah fakpi in dennak a chuah caah Kawlram sipuazi cu tumchuk lei a panh thluamah. Kawlram tangka Kyat hi 7% hrawng a tum colh 1$ ah 1320 in 1420 ah zarh khat chung ah aa chuah colh. Yangon Stock Exchange (YSX) zong Myanpix index zong Feb 1 ah 441 in nihin 421 tiang phan i 6% hrawng a tum tinak a si. Trading volume hi cu YOY ah 59% hrawng a tum. YSX stock ah ramdang mi i tel khawhnak nawl March 2020 ah an rak on i ramleng kamipi tampi zong nih JV in YXS ah an lut lai tiah ruahchannak tampi an rak ngei nain Covid le aana tingnak nih lam a phih ngai. Sui hi 5% hrawng a kai. (YSX, MOC, Bloomberg, Nikkei).

Kum 10 chung rak ngiar lenmi democracy a vun dongh le cang ka i ramleng kampani tampi an chuah, tampi chuah an i tim cun rian an ngol chung. Cu chung ah Thai i Amata timi hi YSX zong ah luh a tim i Yangon khua ah US$ nuai 1000 hman in acre 2000 a kaumi Industrial complex sak ding in Dec 2020 ah a thawk ka lawng asinain a ngol. Kirin zong Myanmar beer he an i fonhnak in chuah a tim. Toyota factory zong factory a dih i mawtaw chuah le thawk aa tinh bak ah a ngol ve. A tampi rih. Denso le Suzuki zong a rak i din ve hna nain Suzuki cu a thawk than cang. Kawlram ah Toyota mawtaw hi 60% nih hman a si nain ramchung chuah mawtaw thar brand new ahcun Suzuki nih market 60% hrawng a lak (Source: Toyota le Denso).

The World Bank le DICA data ah kum 2020 Kawlram FDI ramdang tangka hrambunh ah Singapore 34% and Hong Kong (China) 26% ram hi a tam bik invest a tuahmi an si. Nitlaklei ram pawl nih Kawlram cung ah sanctions an tuah ahcun ramdang company pawl cung ah zei bantuk thil dah a cang kho ti ahcun. Credit: Dr. Sui Hingz